WikiLeaks-Armenia N 127
2010-01-04
C O N F I D E N T I A L
SECTION 01 OF 03 YEREVAN 000001
SUBJECT: FINAL DEATH THROES FOR LTP’S OPPOSITION ANC?
YEREVAN 00000001 001.2 OF 003
Classified By: CDA Joseph Pennington, reasons 1.4 (b,d).
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SUMMARY
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¶1. (C) Since its creation in May 2008 in the wake of the isputed 2008 presidential election, the 17-party opposition Armenian National Congress (ANC) has been unable to accomplish its stated goal of dislodging the ruling authorities from power. Led by the overbearing Levon Ter-Petrossian (Armenia’s first president and the main loser of the 2008 election), the ANC has instead failed to staunch the steady loss of public support and political relevance as the country’s principal extra-parliamentary opposition.
Recent indicators suggest that the umbrella ANC might also be straining at the seams, with its members discouraged, divided, and torn over their loyalties to their prominent but elf-absorbed leader. Should the ANC suffer substantive fractures, it would likely spell the death knell for the political bloc that likes to think of itself as the main opposition force in Armenia. END SUMMARY.
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DISCOURAGEMENT, DISAGREEMENTS PLAGUING ANC
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¶2. (C) According to contacts inside the ANC, four main factors have combined to create mounting discouragement and disagreement within the ANC. These include LTP’s conciliatory stance on President Sargsian’s foreign policy; a lack of internal democracy in the Congress; a lack of strategy to move towards declared goals; and a shortage of financial resources. These factors, contacts tell us, have brought many of the 17 member parties to apathy and discouragement, and prompted them to explore ways to break away from the ANC without burning their bridges with the prominent but self-centered and vindictive LTP.
¶3. (SBU) Some of the more nationalistic members of the ANC have vehemently disagreed with LTP’s stance on foreign policy issues, in particular his views on Turkey-Armenia rapprochement and resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. These members are disgruntled by LTP’s apparent support of President Sargsian on these issues. The disagreements have boiled over into a bitter leadership battle inside one of the ANC’s most nationalistic parties, the Hnchak Liberal Party, with two rival factions keen to oust each other from the Hnchak ranks. (Comment: The Diaspora-based Hnchaks have reportedly suffered from internal disagreements a long time, but LTP’s foreign policy stances have brought those disagreements to a boil. End Comment.) With their next party congress set for January 9, the Hnchaks may decide to depart the ANC should their leadership change.
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LACK OF INTERNAL DEMOCRACY UNDERCUTS COHESION
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¶4. (C) The lack of internal democracy is another factor undermining the integrity of the bloc, ANC contacts tell us. Decisions are made solely by LTP and formalized in the so-called “political council,” which has essentially no leverage in the decision-making process. One prominent ANC insider told PolOff, for example, that before LTP gives a major speech, he is loath to share it with any of his colleagues, and rarely seeks feedback. Two other ANC leaders grumbled to PolOff in mid-December that they opposed LTP’s refusal to take up the seats he won in the Yerevan city council, which was established at the end of May following a disputed election. They both fumed that even though the election was neither free nor fair, “we should be involved in (Armenia’s) political processes, not always outside of them.”
¶5. (C) We also hear from ANC contacts that LTP assigns the political coordination of the bloc to individuals who have no authority with the leaders of the bloc’s member parties, a practice that also breeds discontent. Armen Martirossian, a member of parliament and one of the leaders of the rival opposition Heritage Party, separately told PolOffs that LTP fears giving any management control to any of the ANC parties, lest the stronger, more opinionated leaders go behind LTP’s back in an effort to marginalize him. Martirossian stated that LTP’s need for absolute fealty from followers who will silently do as they are told was one of the reasons his party could not cooperate with the ANC. “He wanted to do the same with Heritage, integrate us into his amorphous conglomerate, have us assimilate, and lose our identity. That’s why we didn’t join them,” Martirossian said, referring to Heritage’s well-publicized refusal to join the ANC in the run-up to Yerevan’s May 31 city council election.
LACK OF FINANCIAL RESOURCES
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¶6. (C) Another challenge that the bloc reportedly faces is a shortage of financial resources. Those businessmen who were providing financial support to the ANC in hopes that the bloc might come to power have reportedly stopped doing so — including the former MP and embattled business tycoon Khachatur Sukiasian. According to Deputy Speaker of Parliament Samvel Nikoyan, a leading figure in the ruling Republican Party of Armenia, this drying up of resources has made people in the bloc “hungry and angry.” (Note and Comment: In 2007, LTP’s 2008 presidential campaign manager Alexander Arzumanian was arrested and charged with money laundering after the authorities found $50,000 in his suitcase after returning from Moscow. He was detained for four months and eventually released, but the charges have yet to be dropped. ANC insiders said the money was collected in Russia to help support LTP’s presidential bid, a sign that his political finances in Armenia were less than solvent. End Note and Comment.)
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DISILLUSIONMENT ABOUT THE WAY FORWARD
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¶7. (SBU) Local political pundits argue that increasing disillusionment has set in amongst ANC supporters and activists, especially the youth activists who have constituted the ANC’s main driving force. The root of the disillusionment, the pundits claim, is the lack of a clear ANC strategy to move forward and a loss of hope that LTP can or genuinely wants to democratize Armenia.
¶8. (C) According to Richard Giragosian, Director of the Armenian Center for National and International Studies think tank in Yerevan, the ANC has already lost its youth supporters. “Youth need to see concrete steps and have a vision — a tangible goal to strive toward and clear ways to achieve it. It’s impossible to sit at home and do politics.” Commenting on LTP’s lack of political vision, an ANC insider told us that “LTP’s only strategy and hope is that Sargsian will stumble. He’ll wait for a wrong move or circumstance that could spark a fire, will light a torch, and then try to assemble masses in protests. These tactics, however, cannot keep supporters involved and enthusiastic.”
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STEPPING OUT TO SHOW HIS DISMAY?
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¶9. (SBU) On December 15, in apparent reaction to mounting dismay within ANC ranks, Stepan Demirchian, the leader of one of the ANC’s largest member parties (the People’s Party of Armenia), held a news conference to argue that the ongoing pause by the ANC in holding political rallies “should not be too long.” (Note and Comment: In LTP’s last political rally held in downtown Yerevan on September 18, he announced a hiatus in rallies out of consideration for the ongoing rapprochement with Turkey and its risks for the NK resolution process. Many ANC rank-and-file disagree with such a stance, and have urged ANC leaders to resume their frequent holding of street rallies to challenge the ruling authorities. End Note and Comment.)
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SOME MEMBERS STAY ON FOR POLITICAL SURVIVAL
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¶10. (C) “Today parties stay in the ANC solely out of respect for LTP, or their unwillingness or fear of betraying him,” contacts in the ANC tell us. They add that “none of them (the member parties) see a future for the bloc any more, but since most of those parties on their own have no power at all, they cling to LTP desperately, hoping to prolong their political life a bit longer and wishing to believe his words that it’s not over yet.” (Note and Comment: The pillars of the ANC have always been three parties: LTP’s Armenian National Movement (ANM), the People’s Party of Armenia, and the Republic Party. Most of the remaining 14 parties are minor splinter groups from ANM or parties that hardly consist of more than several individuals. The ANM still has a countrywide network of supporters and branches, but it lacks a strong and charismatic leader and has a damaged reputation inherited from the times of LTP’s 1991-98 presidency. End Note and Comment.)
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COULD THE JANUARY 10 BY-ELECTION RESURRECT THE ANC?
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¶11. (SBU) With the ANC primarily a bloc whose creation was predicated on the flawed 2008 presidential election, some pundits view the upcoming January 10 by-election for one of its supporter’s vacated parliamentary seats as an opportunity to revitalize the bloc’s sagging support and political relevance. The ANC plans to hold a pre-election rally on January 8, where LTP has announced his intention to speak. But the ANC candidate, opposition newspaper editor Nikol Pashinian, is currently in confinement awaiting the January 19 verdict that will determine his guilt in the violent unrest that followed the flawed 2008 election. Based on the convictions of all of his opposition colleagues up to now, most are betting that Pashinian will suffer the same fate. In that case, he would not be allowed to assume his seat even if he were to win it.
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COMMENT
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¶12. (C) Repudiation of the ruling authorities has always been the main reason for the ANC’s existence. In this respect, its supporters initially viewed LTP and his stature as a former president as assets for effecting change in an authoritarian political environment. These supporters, however, have lost hope in LTP, recognizing that the downsides of his leadership style (vanity, authoritarianism, personalized politics) are insurmountable. While many in the ANC are still reluctant to cut the cord due to their own political insignificance, it seems that it is only a matter of time — perhaps after the upcoming January by-election — before the ANC completely loses its relevance. Should the ANC avoid an irretrievable break-up, it will only be because of its disparate parts’ desire to keep the bloc on life support until the next round of parliamentary elections in 2012, where they would have a better chance competing together than going it alone.
PENNINGTON
